Throughout history, there have been several transitional periods between major historical eras, such as the transition from ancient to medieval periods or the shift from the modern to the contemporary era. In recent years, we have witnessed another such historical transition, one that continues into the present day. As global citizens, we are accustomed to seeing the United States as the protector of Western policies and countries with a Western character. We are used to the U.S. acting to preserve democracies and to keep them from falling to potential dictators.
However, in recent years, we have seen “Uncle Sam” stand silently, watching as the Russian bear crushes those who come too close without facing any consequences. We saw this when the U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan, and just five minutes later, the Taliban took over the country. Similarly, we are still witnessing this in Ukraine, where the war with Russia seems unwilling to stop. Just as the Taliban easily entered the vacuum left by the U.S. military in Afghanistan—or more precisely, the vacuum created by the absence of American presence—this is likely to happen in other regions as well.
If we look at the South Caucasus from a geopolitical perspective, we can see that many political forces in this crucial area, which lies between the trade routes and passageways of Europe and Asia, are eager to align with the West. For example, Armenia prefers to receive Western support rather than the suffocating embrace of Iran’s octopus-like reach and its ally, the Russian bear.
Yet despite Armenia’s desires to “switch sides” toward the West, there is no longer any Western power willing to knock on the table to defend it, to threaten those who would harm its sovereignty, and “get their hands dirty” for it. The United States has grown weary of conflicts that are not its own, but does this justify a complete withdrawal from international intervention for the sake of those who fear the forces of darkness? The world has observed how the U.S. behaved before and after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war.
In December 2021, Vladimir Putin’s Russia issued a list of ultimatums to NATO regarding its future military activities and what was considered a violation of the peace between NATO countries and Russia. A document sent from Moscow stated, “The Parties that are member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization shall not conduct any military activity on the territory of Ukraine, as well as in other states of Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia.” The rejection of Russia’s ultimatums by the U.S. government under President Joe Biden led Russia to intervene in Ukraine, acting with full force to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. In response, the Ukrainians refused to accept such brutal external interference, which immediately undermined the country’s independence. In this way, one could argue that NATO and the United States were the catalysts for the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.
The countries of the South Caucasus, including Azerbaijan, have been observing the situation in Ukraine since December 2021 and understand that they may be next in line from Russia’s perspective. Perhaps due to the Russia-Ukraine war, the peripheral states of Russia, former Soviet Union republics, are beginning to realize they do not want to be subordinate to the power centers of any regional superpower. Countries such as Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia have grown weary of answering to Russia and considering its geopolitical interests at the expense of their national interests.
This is evident in the new dynamics emerging between Azerbaijan and Russia following the tragic plane crash on December 25. Due to the deterioration of relations caused by this crisis, on February 5, 2025, Azerbaijan closed the “Russian House” office in Baku. “The Russian House,” founded in 1925 by Soviet security services, was allegedly aimed at promoting Russian culture and language in various countries, but in practice, it served as a cover for Russia’s intelligence activities and the creation of a local network to benefit Russia covertly. Russia ran a center within Azerbaijan and other countries that aimed to strengthen Russia and its ideology, using soft power, but still interfering in the internal affairs of other nations. Traditionally, Georgia and, more recently, Armenia have followed Azerbaijan’s lead, attempting to shift their relations with Russia. In Yerevan, there are efforts to diversify Armenia’s foreign policy and reduce its strategic dependence on Russia, clearly emphasizing these trends.
The historical transitional period we are currently in is marked by the United States’ lack of intervention after such a long period as the “responsible adult” in the world. Perhaps another superpower is on its way to becoming dominant, or perhaps several new powers are emerging today. However, one thing is certain: the lack of American intervention in the South Caucasus has led many forces to want to act in this region. Russia seeks to preserve its influence, Turkey wants to benefit from its close cooperation with Azerbaijan, France wants to assist the Armenians, and Iran looks greedily at the South Caucasus. Once several powers or strong political forces decide to intervene in this geographical region, often against each other, it usually leads to chaos and endless guerrilla wars. The last thing the countries of the South Caucasus need is instability, especially in the post-Karabakh war era between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Intervention by many external forces in the region could lead to endless guerrilla warfare.
Only if the countries of the South Caucasus decide to cooperate will they be able to achieve the geopolitical strength necessary to control the region they inhabit and, of course, to achieve peace and stability. Political combinations such as Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia in security matters, Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Georgia in economic fields, or even the Turkic States Organization, will ultimately lead to the superiority of South Caucasus countries’ interests over those of external powers. Only by overcoming traditional ethnic conflicts in the region and full cooperation will the countries of the South Caucasus be able to remove the threats they face and achieve the power they have dreamed of since the collapse of the Soviet Union and their establishment as independent states.