WASHINGTON – On August 8, 2025, the Washington peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia introduced the U.S.-backed Zangezur (TRIPP) Corridor. This development immediately challenged the traditional influence of both Moscow and Tehran. What began as resistance has since shifted toward measured adaptation, as both capitals adjust to the region’s new geopolitical realities.
Russian analysts acknowledged the U.S. move as an attempt to “seize the region,” but, as one expert put it, “there are no real grounds for protest from Russia.” Moscow has avoided outright confrontation, opting instead for indirect pressure.
Commentators stressed that Russia’s previous tools, such as deploying FSB forces, have lost effectiveness. “Direct negotiations with Armenia, without Russian involvement, are now more beneficial to Baku,” one expert noted.
Officially, Moscow described the agreement as a “positive development” and voiced hopes for stability, while simultaneously insisting that peace be advanced through regional frameworks involving Russia, Iran, and Turkey.
Ali Akbar Velayati, senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, warned that the corridor “will not become Trump’s passage but a graveyard for his mercenaries.”
Iranian analysts argue that the agreement sidelines Tehran, undercutting its strategic role and jeopardizing its only 44 km border with Armenia. Despite fiery rhetoric, Tehran’s official line has emphasized support for peace in principle, while warning against external interference and pledging to safeguard the region’s security.
The South Caucasus is undergoing a profound power rebalancing. For Moscow, this means moving from dominance to compromise, leveraging multilateral formats to retain influence. For Tehran, it means amplifying threats while simultaneously seeking relevance in regional mechanisms such as the 3+3 platform. Both powers are learning that adaptation, not resistance, is the only viable path forward in the new order.
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